The Two Tripartite Alliances in East Asia in the Growingly Intertwining Conflict

Several regions today are engaged in widespread conflicts that have displaced millions globally. The Middle East, Central Africa, East Africa, and Eastern Europe are all witnessing some of the largest hostilities that could have global repercussions.

East Asia is seeing rising tensions as the Chinese government aims for ambitions towards Taiwan and the South China Sea. North Korea and South Korea have heightened tensions not seen since the 2010 shelling, and Russo-Japanese relations have worsened.

Rising security threats in a turbulent geopolitical environment indirectly create new alliances through military and diplomatic measures in the region. With China, Russia, and North Korea growing closer, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan reciprocate the new challenges.

Rising Threats and Growing Alliances in East Asia

The People’s Republic of China is building a military rivaling the United States. The purpose is to overtake America as the top global superpower and eventually make a move toward Taiwan. China also maintains an aggressive posture in the South China Sea against Vietnam and the Philippines and in the Sea of Japan against Japan.

Russia and Japan are currently witnessing a degree of diplomatic hostilities. Moscow withdrew from the peace treaty talks over the Kuril Islands with Tokyo on March 21st, 2022. Discussions over the Kuril Islands are instrumental as Russia has been occupying and militarizing the Japanese-recognized islands since WWII.

The Korean Peninsula is also witnessing heightened tensions as the DPRK, also known as North Korea, is engaging in warlike rhetoric against the ROC, also known as South Korea. Recently, the ruling tyrant of North Korea, Kim Jun Un, disengaged from peace talks toward reunification with the south and threatened war with both Seoul and Tokyo.

Tripartite One: Russia, China, and North Korea

Russia, China, and North Korea, despite being ideologically different, are all aligned in foreign policy interests, particularly in wanting an authoritative hegemony over their neighbors.

In the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia is currently supported militarily by North Korea through millions of shells. Though having a significant dud rate, the shells continue to consolidate Russia’s artillery advantage over Ukraine, particularly as Western aid continues to come in slowly.

Diplomatically, China and Russia align, particularly over United Nations resolutions. Though discreetly, Western intelligence agencies have raised warnings over growing Chinese support for Russia in Ukraine.

North Korea, despite being internationally isolated, has a longstanding tyrannical Kim regime backed by both China and Russia. Even though both Beijing and Moscow have voted to sanction Pyongyang with UN Security Council resolutions, the rogue Korean Peninsula state keeps a large contingent of American forces in the Indo-Pacific region on edge.

South is seen as a major geopolitical foe to North Korea, Russia, and China as South Korea’s economic and technological power continues to grow. South Korea is also a major military exporter with major weapons transactions with countries such as Poland, Turkey, and India.

Tripartite Two: Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, three regional powerhouses facing rising existential threats, are becoming intertwined in defense cooperation.

Japan, which has passed a remilitarization bill, plans to rapidly expand the military, particularly the navy, due to rising threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.

Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, reiterated America’s importance on the world stage and the need for the US not to abandon Ukraine in its time of need that fears East Asia could suffer the fate of isolationist policies take over.

Taiwan is a major flashpoint for the world, with fears Xi Jinping could move to militarily put the country under Beijing’s fold by 2027 at the earliest. In lieu of the Chinese threat, American military advisors will be stationed on the isle to continue training and preparing Taiwan’s self-defense forces.

South Korea, though sharing interests in staving off an imperialist neighbor like Taiwan, is wary of direct support for the republic like Japan and America are. However, due to Pyongyang’s growing aggressive moves, Seoul’s foreign policy could align more with Taipei and Tokyo.

The biggest fear for South Korea of a war on the Taiwan Straits is that their northern counterparts will use the distraction for belligerent action or military provocation. A continued and bolstered American presence in East Asia will be needed to supplement allies against growing challenges.

The two trilateral powers in East Asia will continue to align simultaneously in foreign policy and prepare for a potential global conflict that will intertwine toward widespread military movements in the region.